Geopolitics behind US Ambassador’s claims – Dr. Phillip Dexter
Dr. Phillip Dexter writes that US ambassador Brigety’s extraordinary claims mark a hard shift in US interference in South African democracy.
1
0
United States ambassador Reuben Brigety’s extraordinary break with diplomatic protocol, where he accused South Africa of supplying arms to Russia, could only have been made on the instruction of Washington. If Brigety had acted on his own volition he would have been immediately recalled.
Brigety’s press conference was more than just a shot across the bows of the South African state, demanding that it fall in line behind Washington’s geopolitical agenda. It was also a deliberate and successful attempt to inflict economic damage, and to further encourage and incite the howling, baying pro-West chorus in our media, much of it directly funded by or linked to US interests.
Of course, there have also been repeated threats of further economic damage, mostly made by local proxies.
MORE FROM PAIS | SOUTH AFRICA DEMARCHES US AMBASSADOR
It also marks a key shift in US interference in our democracy, which has now moved from funding NGOs and the media project that works to delegitimise the freely elected ruling party, to the beginning of a hard strategy for regime change. As in Venezuela, Bolivia and Haiti, this takes the form of building an alliance between the US, “civil society” and media projects it funds, and local elites — overwhelmingly white elites. This is a standard model used around the world, sometimes very effectively.
Funding NGOs and media projects is what is known as a “soft measure”. Making an unsubstantiated allegation of arms or ammunition sales to Russia is the first step in a turn to “hard measures”. As geopolitical tensions escalate we must expect more of the same.
In Europe, Germany swiftly fell into line when pressured by the US, and France seems set to do the same. But most of the global south has refused to toe the line and the US will now aim to enforce obedience. In Africa, South Africa, despite its current problems, remains a key player and every effort will be made to turn our country into a US client state.
The reasons for the escalation of pressure from the US and its proxies in South Africa is complex and turns on several challenges to its position as a global power. This shift started during Donald Trump’s presidency, when he started a new cold war by essentially declaring an economic war on the People’s Republic of China. Prior to this, the US had thought it could still be the dominant global power despite China’s rise as an economic giant, the continued growth of Russia and India and the clear shifts in the position of countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
MORE FROM PAIS | SOUTH AFRICAN COMMUNIST PARTY CALLS FOR DECISIVE ACTION AGAINST US AMBASSADOR
But its position was further weakened by the disastrous policies of the local neo-conservatives, and its failure to consolidate any power in countries in which it has intervened, such as Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria.
Although it continues to have client states in Africa, the US has suffered a general decline in influence in Africa despite the 22 military bases it maintains on our continent. Events in countries such as Burkino Faso and Mali, and a general turn towards anti-imperialist sentiment among young people in Francophone Africa, have shown that US domination of Africa is increasingly shaky. The fact that South Africa has not given up its autonomy and has steadfastly held to a non-aligned position has also undermined US aspirations for dominance.
When the US realised that it was fast losing its position of economic hegemony, it moved into attack. It has clearly made the calculation that if it wants to preserve its dominance, it must ultimately destroy China’s rising power. But the first step is to destroy Russia, a smaller power. The ultimate aim is the same as with China, to divide Russia into smaller states and bring them all under US control.
Those in our media who go on and on about the US being the home of human rights and democracy ignore the fact that the US has been involved in more than 400 foreign military interventions since 1776, with half of these being post World War II and half again of those remaining after 1990. If the US thinks that South Africa is not falling in line it would think nothing of trying to do here what it has already done in countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Haiti — to use diplomatic, economic and donor power to undermine an elected government and push for regime change.
If the South Africa state continues to defend its autonomy and to take a non-aligned position on geopolitical conflicts we must expect pressure to escalate. The ANC faces many challenges and has made many mistakes, but it is an elected government and South Africans must defend the right to elect their own government, and to do so without interference from any foreign powers.
We need to take measures to defend our autonomy. Brigety’s actions, which are typical of those the US takes against states where it wants regime change, have already done economic damage. There are clear threats to do further damage.
MORE FROM PAIS | RUSSIAN EMBASSY IN SOUTH AFRICA DENIES ARMS WERE UPLOADED
Now that the South African government has denied this claim and instituted an inquiry into it, there must be consequences for this act of economic sabotage. The ambassador must be expelled. If we are not willing to expel the ambassador, then we are not willing to defend our autonomy.
All of this also needs to be understood in the context of the reality that in South Africa, the decline in ANC support and power, occasioned by a combination of the ANC’s own weaknesses and mistakes and the rise of opposition by an increasingly aggressive conservative movement, mean that for the first time in almost three decades, there is a chance to unseat the ANC from power nationally. This has already happened in one province, a city and many towns. Lately there are several cities in which the ANC does not have an absolute majority.
The aim of the new right-wing coalition, which includes political parties, think-tanks, NGOs and media projects, is to install a government that will allow the unfettered reign of capital, protect private property at all costs, continue the economic system created by the apartheid state and turn South Africa into a US client state.
Our leaders must find the courage to remain independent and to continue to be non-aligned in terms of the war in Ukraine. But we must be very partisan in working to build the power of the global south, to defeat imperialism and reject all forms foreign aggression and interference in sovereign countries. There is no room for fudging on these issues.
As geopolitical tensions escalate towards the increasing risk of a US attack on China, choppy waters at home may be taken over with a storm. It would be wise to ensure that our own military capability is strengthened.
Phillip Dexter is a director of PAIS. This piece was originally published in Mail & Guardian.
